El Top Ten de Urbes Violentas

Cinco de las diez ciudades más violentas del mundo están en América Latina. Así lo concluyó el Consejo Ciudadano para la Seguridad Pública (CCSP), una ONG mexicana, que hizo un estudio sobre la tasa de homicidos en ciudades del mundo entero. Ciudad Juárez, al norte de México, encabeza la lista de violencia (130 personas mueren asesinadas por cada 100.000 habitantes), seguida por Caracas, con 96 homicidios por cada 100.000 personas. New Orleans, en el estado de Louisiana es la tercera ciudad más violenta del mundo.

De las ciudades colombianas, Medellín es la única que aparece en esa lista, con igual número de homicidios por habitante que Baltimore, Maryland. Sin embargo, con 45 homicidios por cada 100,000 habitantes, Medellín aún está bastante lejos de los altísimos índices de violencia de los años 90 (¡La tasa de homicidios alcanzó a llegar a 320 por cada 100.000 habitantes!).

Tal vez algunos bogotanos, con lo mucho que nos quejamos por la inseguridad, encontremos algo de regocijo en el hecho de que nuestra ciudad es dos veces más segura que Bagdad (la décima en la lista), cinco veces más que Caracas y casi siete veces más que Ciudad Juárez. Usando esos estándares, las cosas en Bogotá parecen no estar tan mal...

Getting Serious About Fiscal Responsibility: Colombia Needs a Rainy Day Fund

In Colombia, one of the many lessons that derived from the Great Recession is that the government should have saved some money during the good times. Under the Uribe administration, Colombia experienced healthy economic growth for a number of years, reaching an almost unprecedented annual rate of growth of 8% in 2007. It was back then that economists and politicians talked about balancing the budget, as it actually occurred - Colombia even about had a small budget surplus for the first time in decades. Fiscal responsibility had finally come to these shores.

No longer. After the worst economic crisis since 1929 hit the world with all its might, Colombia's performance worsened. Unemployment grew, exports took a big blow, industrial output decreased, construction slowed down and as a consequence, the government's revenue diminished considerably. All of a sudden, there was a 23,4 trillion pesos gap (around US$11.5 billion) in the government's expenditures account. Many government programs were slimmed down, goals were postponed, and even the Ministry of Defense (the center of Mr. Uribe's security policies) saw its budget tightened. Needless to say, there was no money available for the set up of a stimulus package that could be used to prop up the economy in the meantime. We were back in the old times of fiscal deficits and mounting debt (The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Colombia's debt to GDP ratio to increase from 18.9% in 2008 to 21.8% this year).

In order to avoid this scenario, Colombia should have looked South. Chile, a nation that has been a model of fiscal responsibility and trade openness for Latin Americans, and Peru, which is applying these lessons diligently, do not share Colombia's deficit problem. The reason? They have rainy day funds.

In the early 2000s, Peru set up a Fund for Fiscal Stabilization that towards the beginning of this year amounted to US$3.5 billion. In 2007, Chile created its own Fund for Economic and Social Stabilization, which had US$19.5 billion in February 2009. This is money that the Chilean and the Peruvian government have been saving and investing in government bonds, currencies, etc. In times like the Great Recession, these governments use the money in their funds to make up for losses in expected government revenue and protect social expenditure during crises.

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This chart shows that Peru and Chile, partly due to their Funds, have practiced a culture of fiscal responsibility, which renders them much less vulnerable to the effects of economic crises. The chart was made using the Economist Intelligence Unit's Data Tool.

Colombia needs a similar program. To create such a fund would be to institutionalize practices of fiscal responsibility and to make governments understand that debt (internal or external) is a second-best solution to sudden shortages of revenue. Especially in this crisis, with international credit markets so tight, and so much of the world's available cash going to finance America's TARP and stimulus package, developing countries had a limited number of lenders on the international stage.

It should be the the aim of the Colombian government (both the present one and the next) to balance the budget, and create a Fund for Economic Stabilization using the experiences of Peru and Chile as a model. Of course, with the current budget deficit equaling 3.5% of GDP, it will take a while before Colombia can balance its fiscal accounts, let alone have enough money to create that fund. It took three years for the Uribe administration (from 2001 to 2004) to (kind of) get rid of a budget deficit that was equally large. So, let us hope that by 2012 the Colombian government (with Uribe or without him, you never know) starts getting serious about this idea.

Colombia tiene petróleo, carbon, esmeraldas y políticos corruptos: Las regalías en Colombia

La riqueza colombiana en hidrocarburos y otros recursos naturales no renovables no será tan grande como la de Venezuela, pero aún así es considerable. El año pasado, el Estado colombiano recibió 4,8 billones de pesos (unos 2.400 millones de dólares, equivalentes al 1,5% del PIB) en regalías generadas por la explotación de estos recursos. Colombia produce petróleo, carbón, oro, esmeraldas y otros minerales que le dejan estos dineros al país.

Recientemente comencé a estudiar el tema de las regalías en Colombia, quién las recibe, cómo se gastan y por qué. Lo que descubrí es que el sistema nacional de regalías es uno de los despilfarros más graves con dineros del Estado y, muy posiblemente, un enorme foco de corrupción.

Las regalías se dividen en directas e indirectas. Las directas, que representan la enorme mayoría de las regalías que recibe Colombia, son asignadas directamente a los municipios y departamentos donde se lleva a cabo la explotación y el transporte de los recursos naturales. Las indirectas, aproximadamente el 10% de las regalías totales, son entregadas al Gobierno Central, que las asigna a los municipios y departamentos que presenten proyectos ante el Consejo Nacional de Regalías. El resultado es que una vastísima cantidad de dinero producto de la explotación minera, de gas y petróleo se concentra en unos pocos lugares del país, mientras que los demás tienen que luchar a codazos para hacerse con los restos de esa riqueza.

Sin embargo, habría pocas quejas sobre este sistema si los cuantiosos dineros de las regalías indirectas hubieran servido para entregarle a la población de estos departamentos y municipios una nivel de vida decente, servicios públicos de calidad, infraestructura vial, vivienda, salud y educación. Pero la realidad es distinta. El Casanare recibió en 2008 700 mil millones de pesos (350 millones de dólares) en regalías, lo que equivale casi a 2.000 millones de pesos diarios. Con menos de 300.000 habitantes (menos del 1% de la población colombiana), esto da para que el departamento tenga, de lejos, el PIB per cápita más alto de todo el país (como en efecto, sucede).

Sin embargo, el censo de 2005 encontró que en Casanare aún hay más de un 26% de la población que tiene necesidas básicas (alcantarillado, techo, comida, vestido, etc.) insatisfechas (NBI). Un caso similar y más preocupante es el de La Guajira, que recibió 400.000 millones de pesos (200 millones de dólares) en regalías en 2008. Sin embargo, un 40% de la población tiene NBI. Arauca, otro de los departamentos productores de petróleo más importantes, tiene poco más de 250.000 habitantes, 30% de los cuales tiene NBI. En 2008, Arauca recibió más de 200 mil millones de pesos en regalías.

¿Dónde están esos dineros? Ciertamente no en los bolsillos de los ciudadanos del común.

La situación se vuelve más preocupante cuando se evidencia que los departamentos del país que no reciben regalías podrían beneficiarse muchísimo si pudieran acceder a esos dineros. Departamentos como el Chocó, Caquetá, Vichada, y Guaviare necesitan recursos para luchar contra los altísimos niveles de pobreza que existen en sus jurisdicciones. La situación del Chocó es especialmente dramática. Con casi el doble de la población de Arauca o Casanare, más del 70% de sus habitantes tiene NBI -y sin embargo el departamento recibe en regalías directas por poco más del 1% de lo que recibe el Casanare.

La gráfica muestra esta situación para los 32 departamentos colombianos y el distrito capital.

Click para ampliar

Fuente: DANE y Planeación Nacional.
Entre más alto sea el índice de NBI, un mayor porcentaje de la población vive en la pobreza.

Aunque no soy fanático del populismo financiado con petróleo, del tipo que se está carcomiendo a Venezuela y propio del Socialismo del siglo XXI, es difícil negar que hay algo muy mal con el sistema de regalías en Colombia. Su repartición es injusta, dejando demasiado en las manos de unos pocos alcaldes y gobernadores que no han utilizado el dinero en beneficio del país y sus habitantes, e impidiéndole a la enorme mayoría poder disfrutar de los frutos de la riqueza mineral que existe en Colombia.

El uso de los dineros, cuando menos es cuestionable. Y aunque esto puede ser culpa de la misma ley de regalías (Ley 756 de 2002) la que establece los proyectos en los cuales se deben gastar esos dineros (15% en fomento a la minería, 30% en preservación del medio ambiente, etc.), la ley sí deja un amplio margen de maniobra a los funcionarios públicos para usar estos recursos en beneficio de la gente (para aumentar coberturas en salud, educación, saneamiento básico, etc.)

Es hora de cambiar este sistema ineficiente y lleno de corrupción. Bien haría la Contraloría en indagar sobre este asunto y ejercer presión sobre el Gobierno Central y los gobiernos departamentales y municipales. Pues ya que les está entrando dinero gratis, producto del azar de la geología, a tan pocos entes territoriales, es hora que lo pongan a trabajar para el beneficio de sus comunidades. Igualmente, es imperativo aumentar el porcentaje de las regalías indirectas, a fin de que el Gobierno Central tenga más recursos de regalías para repartir a los departamentos que no están nadando en petróleo, gas y carbón.

La batalla en el Congreso para cambiar la ley será dura. Los congresistas de los departamentos beneficiarios hoy por hoy lucharán hasta con los dientes para mantener los dineros en sus capitales. Pero es imperativo derrotarlos. No sea que cuando se agote la riqueza petrolífera y minera colombiana, todo lo que quede sean unos pocos políticos millonarios y corruptos y una enorme población desfavorecida que no vio ni un peso de tanta bonanza.

Go to Hell: Colombia Should Leave UNASUR

God, even the flag is kind of Communist

Fernando Londoño Hoyos is one of the most lucid Colombians alive. A former Minister during President Uribe's first term in office, his remarks are always accurate and straight to the point. Every time I read something by him or listen to him speak, he makes me think, without exception. Indeed, there are few men in Colombia who are cleverer or who have a better understanding of how to solve the country's problems. I wish I had his brain and his wit.

Mr. Londoño recently published an op-ed piece in El Tiempo, Colombia's leading newspaper, criticizing the Union of South American Nations, UNASUR, better known as South America's attempt to emulate the EU. Never wrong, Mr. Londoño writes that UNASUR has fallen prey of the anti-American agenda of President Hugo Chávez and his club of minions. Sadly, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, South-America's-great-power-in-the-making, seem to be buying to an extent into President Chávez's club condemnation of Colombia and its deal to allow fewer than 800 American troops use seven of its military bases.

This week, there was a meeting of UNASUR members in Quito, and although there was no formal condemnation of the Colombia-US deal, all eyes were on the issue. President Chávez, predictably, made some nasty remarks about having a war in South America if the base deal moved forward. Rightly, President Uribe decided not to attend the summit, not least because it was being held in Rafael Correa's Ecuador, a country with which Colombia has no diplomatic relations since March of 2008.

President Cristina Fernández of Argentina later proposed to have another UNASUR meeting in Bariloche to discuss the base deal with President Uribe there. It seems thus far that Mr. Uribe plans to attend that meeting. Yet, the Colombian government would like other issues to be discussed as well. For instance, they want to hear Venezuela's explanation of how it was that some Swedish rocket launchers that belonged to that country ended up in the hands of FARC. President Chávez has also signed a huge weapons contract with Putin-Medvedev's Russia, adding to his already impressive arsenal. Perhaps that should be under discussion, too.

But here is where Mr. Londoño's remarks come handy. He writes:

"We (Colombia, that is) have the most perfect right to defend ourselves from terrorism and the drug trafficking that provides its funds. We have the most perfect right to prevent illegal airplanes from invading the country's skies bringing weapons and money to FARC. We have the most perfect right to intercept boats and ships that, filled with cocaine, leave our shores to seek the markets where the money is moving to corrupt us, and the weapons and ammunition to kill us. That we do this with the United States, our mandatory partner in this endeavor, bothers Mr. Lula, Ms. Bachelet, and of course, Messrs. Chávez, Correa and Morales, protectors and friends of all those thugs."

He then, adds:

"And their want to express their inconformity, a rude intervention in our domestic affairs, and try to prevent us from defending ourselves and destroy that plague. And for that, of course, they summon the Ministers of Defense of UNASUR. In order to offend us, to put us under siege, to threaten us. Well, let them go to hell with their complaints and their warnings."

Indeed, Mr. Londoño, let them go to hell. UNASUR is proving to be an organization that is there to hinder, not to advance, Colombia's national interest. Given the current geo-politics of the region, our government would do well in leaving the organization. We shall not give explanations to other countries about what occurs within our borders, about the deals with sign with other nations, or about what use we give to our military bases. That, my friends, is called sovereignty. And we should make use of it.

For all these reasons, President Uribe, please leave UNASUR. We all knew it was a joke since the beginning, anyways.

Mejor es Posible, Mejor Vargas Lleras

Germán Vargas Lleras debe ser el próximo Presidente de la República de Colombia. Este es el video de presentación de su campaña Transición Colombia.

Across the Border: President Chávez's Trade Restrictions

President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela needs to make appear 6 billion dollars in goods and services. Or that will be the case if his threats of stopping trade with Colombia become true.

Trade, it seems, will be the main casualty in the row that Mr. Chávez has created with the government in Bogota, over an agreement that allows fewer than 800 US troops to be stationed in five military bases in Colombia. Never a fan of capitalism, commerce, private initiatives, and anything that is not directly under his control, President Chávez must be thrilled to have found the perfect pretext to restrict trade with Colombia. After all, on this side of the border we are all (almost all) pseudo-imperialists and burgeois idiots in his eyes.

What Venezuela imports from Colombia, President Chávez has said, will be brought from somewhere else or produced inside his country. Venezuela does not need Colombian cars, shoes, clothes, food, or the very toilet paper being used in every other toilet in Caracas and Valencia, thinks President Chávez.

The marketplace, and the Venezuelan consumer seems to think otherwise. Not only did Colombia export 6 billion dollars to that country last year, but demand for Colombian products has grown exponentially in the ten years that President Chávez has been in power. In 1999, Colombia exported about US$1.5 billion to Venezuela. In 2002, that number reached a low point of about US$600, but ever since, Venezuelan appetite for Colombian manufactures and natural gas has been insatiable. Of course, the disastrous effects that Mr. Chávez's anti-business policies have had on Venezuela's productive capacity are partly to blame (or to thank?) for the surge in Colombian exports to that country.

Today, according to the US State Department, Venezuelan imports come from the following countries: Imports (2008)--$45.1 billion: consumer goods, machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, construction materials. Major suppliers (2008)--U.S. 25.2%, Colombia 15.8%, China 9.3%, Brazil 8.9%.

Please note that the two countries Venezuelans love getting products from are Mr. Chávez's two arch-enemies, the United States and (the pawn, the backyard, the appendix of the Empire) Colombia. Why he has waited this long to stop trade, is a mystery...

Of course, Mr. Chávez will not be able to stop trade with Colombia, unless he decides to close the border. That is unlikely to happen. But if he did, he would be condemning Venezuelans to wait longer and paying higher prices for the goods they want (you can stay up to 9 months in a waiting list in Venezuela in order to buy a new car... no comment). Assuming Mr. Chávez will be able to get everything Venezuela imports from Colombia in Brazil, China, Ecuador, Argentina, or anywhere else, he won't be able to buy it from someone who can send those products with the same expediency. More than 2000 kilometers of shared border do matter, but instead of buying from Colombia, Mr. Chávez would rather bring it from the other side of the Pacific ocean (Venezuela does not even have a coast there) or ship it across the Amazon forest from Brazil.

Please take this lesson home with you: do not emulate President Chávez. Do not kick the hand that feeds you. Even if it feeds you up to 15% only.

Really smart. Chávez smart.