Overtaxing the economy

Oh, taxes. We cannot avoid them. And the fact is that the wealthier your country is, chances are that your government's revenue as a portion of GDP is higher, too.

A Lower Minimum Wage

it is relatively more expensive to hire people in Colombia than in any of the other South American nations. It is no coincidence that Colombia has South America’s highest unemployment rate.

Comparing Neighbors

Venezuela and Colombia have followed very different economic policies in the past decade. See how they have done in 11 cool, educational graphs.

Destituir Congresistas

¿Puede el Procurador General de la Nación destituir congresistas? Se puede decir de todo acerca del Procurador Alejandro Ordóñez menos que ha no trabaja con dedicación

Salario y Desempleo

los datos entre 1990 y 2007 no están en contra de la hipótesis de que salarios mínimos más altos han afectado negativamente la tasa de empleo en Colombia.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Más que Armas: El Presupuesto Nacional de 2010

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Hace dos días, el gobierno colombiano radicó en la Cámara de Representantes su proyecto del presupuesto nacional para el año entrante. En 2010, la administración Uribe planea gastar 148.29 billones de pesos.

Sorprenderá a muchos que el gasto social del gobierno central será bastante más alto que el gasto en defensa (la política de seguridad democrática, bandera del Uribismo) en 2010. De igual manera, el gobierno planea gastar la misma cantidad en defensa que en educación. Como para seguir diciendo que la derecha sólo gasta en guerra.

Click para ampliar

Sin embargo, del gasto público saldrá más plata (más de 40 billones de pesos) para pagar servicio de deuda que para cualquier otra cosa.

De cualquier forma, cabe resaltar que el gasto en defensa y seguridad se mantiene en, más o menos, 20 billones de pesos -niveles parecidos a los de este año (19.49 billones). Asimismo, el gasto en defensa será ligeramente mayor en 2010 que en 2009, tomado como proporción del gasto público total (el 14.2% vs. 13.8%).

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Crime that Has no Name: Kidnappings in Colombia

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For way too long, Colombia was the kidnapping capital of the world. Growing up there in the 1990s and early 2000s meant that you heard constantly about politicians, bankers, entrepreneurs, ordinary people, friends and sometimes relatives of yours who were taken by force. Later, the calls came, demanding payment for their freedom. Sometimes, videos came in the mail, or were sent to newspapers and TV stations, showing the hostages beg the government to accede to the demands of their captors. Sadly, that scenario is not entirely part of the past.

In Colombia we sometimes say that kidnapping is a crime worse than murder. When someone is killed (and far too many murders occur in Colombia, too), and the body is found, the family at least has the solace of knowing what happened to their loved one. There is a funeral, and there is a period of mourning. And whether the body is buried or cremated, at least there is a known end to that tragedy. The certainty that the person is dead allows their relatives to slowly move on with their lives.

With kidnapping, there's no end. Uncertainty, the anguish of not knowing, is all around. As the crime of kidnapping persists in time, it is a continued torture for the hostage and for the relatives and friends, there is no period of mourning or solace to be found in the certitude of death. Imagine having your son, daughter, mother, father, brother, sister, or dear friend taken away from you for ten years or more -as it so often has happened in Colombia. Such a horrendous crime has no name.

So we, Colombians are lucky to have seen things change for good. The darkest hour has already passed: today, fewer people are kidnapped in Colombia than at any other time in the last 20 years.

Click to enlarge

This, perhaps, is one of President Uribe's greatest achievements, and he should be praised for it. This task, however, is unfinished. Last year there were 437 kidnappings in Colombia -indeed, too many for anyone to be fine about it.

Luchando contra el demonio: el Plan Colombia en 2008

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Recientemente tuve una discusión con algunos compatriotas acerca del Plan Colombia y la erradicación de cultivos ilícitos. Me sorprendí al saber que mis tres interlocutores no tenían idea de lo exitoso qu ha sido el Plan Colombia para 1) reducir la producción de cocaína en Colombia y 2) disminuir el área cultivada con coca en el país.

Según el último reporte de la Oficina para las Drogas y el Crimen de las Naciones Unidas (UNODC), en Colombia en 2008 hubo una reducción del 18% en el área cultivada con coca (que se ubicó en 81.000 hectáreas) y una disminución del 28% (!) en la producción de cocaína (que fue de 430 toneladas anuales).

Click para ampliar. Fuente: UNODC

Estos logros son francamente fenomenales. Los indicadores de cultivo de coca y de producción de cocaína están en sus niveles más bajos en toda una década (a excepción del 2006, cuando el cultivo de coca estaba en niveles ligeramente menores). Se corrobora así que ningún país en el mundo ha sido tan eficaz como Colombia a la hora de luchar contra el narcotráfico. La ayuda estadounidense, del orden de US$550 millones al año (desde el 2000) ha sido vital para alcanzar estas metas, y seguirá siendo crucial para consolidarlas. Esperamos que el acuerdo que aumenta la presencia de tropas estadounidenses en suelo colombiano sirva para este fin.

Así que ahí les va el memo a todas las personas que adoran criticar el Plan Colombia y la asociación existente con los Estados Unidos. No hay duda: sin el Plan Colombia, este país ya sería un estado fallido caído en la anarquía.

Ojalá los europeos, que tanta cocaína consumen y que tan poco hacen para combatir su producción en Colombia (y en cualquier otra parte), comiencen a reflexionar y a meterse la mano al bolsillo para luchar contra ese flagelo. Al fin y al cabo Europa tiene casi tantos adictos a la cocaína como los Estados Unidos -sólo que los norteamericanos sí tienen la valentía de luchar contra el problema.

El reporte de la UNODC (en inglés) puede consultarse aquí.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Kidnapping rates: Venezuela beats Colombia again, but they aren't proud of it

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Today, I learned another piece of information that confirms that under President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela has become a nation stricken with crime and violence. Long gone are the days when Colombians looked at our oil-rich neighbors with envy, when Venezuelans could say that theirs was the most promising country out of those liberated by Simón Bolívar about 200 years ago.

But the facts are that Venezuela in 2008 had the second highest homicide rate in Latin America with 52 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants (behind El Salvador's 61 pero 100,000 inhabitants -read this), and (this is what I learned today) the highest kidnapping rate in the region.

Last year, according to Venezuela's Ministry of Internal Relations and Justice there were 537 kidnappings in that country, which is one hundred more than those occurred in Colombia. Mexico, third on this infamous list, counted about 400 kidnappings in 2008. Between January 1st and May 21st of this year there had been 289 reported kidnappings in Venezuela, which means that if this trend continues, there will be around 820 kidnappings in that country in 2009.

Having a smaller population than both Colombia and Mexico, this means that Venezuela has a far higher kidnapping rate. It also means that, statistically, someone living in Venezuela is twice more likely of being kidnapped than someone living in Colombia. Considering Colombia's horrible history of kidnapping (in the year 2000 there were more than 3,000 kidnappings, mostly by the FARC), the fact that Venezuela is now Latin America's (and probably the world's) kidnapping capital is just telling of how deep that country has sunk under Mr. Chávez's rule.

Click on the graph

Of course, Mr. Chávez's government (if you can call it that) maintains that they are fighting hard to stop kidnappers and, specially, to address the "social causes" of these crimes (presumably, wealth inequality, poverty and lack of education -why do leftists believe that all criminals are poor, uneducated or jealous of how much their compatriots own? Did they forget that many of the world's most horrendous criminals are millionaires, like Bin Laden and Pablo Escobar? Many FARC leaders are holders of university degrees, too. Excuse me, but that kind of thinking seems to be awfully insulting towards the poor.)

As President Uribe has shown in Colombia, you fight crime with better law enforcement -but of course, Mr. Chávez is too busy squandering his country's massive oil wealth and making sure his family gets a big share of it. I hope Venezuelans soon realize that it doesn't have to be this way.

Read this excellent article by Simon Romero of the New York Times to find more information on this issue.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Tainted with blood: Correa's links to FARC come to light... yet again

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Jorge Briceño, also known by his nom de guerre 'Mono Jojoy' is one of the most important FARC leaders. Ruthless, fat and diabetic, Briceño was considered to become the head of that terrorist organization, after its founder, Manuel Marulanda Vélez, or 'Tirofijo', died last year of heart failure. Yet, Guillermo León Sáenz known as 'Alfonso Cano', another guerrilla leader was named FARC's top commander, leaving Briceño in a second place.

Now, Briceño's name is making headlines again. Yesterday, the Associated Press released 15 minutes of footage showing Briceño reading a letter from the late Manuel Marulanda to a group of FARC members. The video, which seems to be genuine, was most probably filmed in 2008 between March and July (between, that is, the death of FARC leader Raúl Reyes in Ecuador and the liberation of Ingrid Betancourt and other 11 FARC-held hostages). Briceño is seen to be reading from a laptop computer, and he talks about the need to attack "the enemy" (Colombia's military forces) and the favors that drug lords have extended to his terrorist group. He calls Uribe a "fascist" and his government "pawns of the empire".

No surprise until there. Briceño's hatred for President Uribe can only be comparable to the disgust the President feels for him. The reason why AP's video has created such a news storm is that Briceño mentions the names of other three Latin American presidents, putting them in a very awkward situation.

Watch the video in Spanish:


Hugo Chávez of Venezuela is FARC's "friend", reads Briceño. Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has offered "matériel" as a show of "solidarity with FARC". And finally, the news bomb: Briceño talks about the "aid in dollars to [Ecuadorean President Rafael] Correa's campaign and the subsequent conversations with his envoyees..." Marulanda's letter, read by Briceño in the video, said that these things were included in a list of documents that had been confiscated by Colombia's military in the attack against Raul Reyes' camp. "The FARC's secrets have been lost" wrote Manuel Marulanda.

No doubt, the video is set to deepen the diplomatic row between the Colombian and the Ecuadorean governments. Quito and Bogotá froze all diplomatic relations after the attack against Reyes, and ever since the impasse has grown for worse. This month, an Ecuadorean judge ordered that former Colombian Minister of Defense and possible presidential candidate, Juan Manuel Santos be captured for his role in the military operation that killed Reyes. President Uribe defiantly said that the Colombian government would not let the Ecuadoreans "touch" Mr. Santos, and offered him heightened protection and a diplomatic passport. In the meantime, Ecuador has remained resilient in its desire to bring Mr. Santos to their justice system.

Moreover, the Ecuadorean government has unilaterally imposed trade restrictions to about 1,300 Colombian products, arguing that the exchange rate with the Colombian peso affects their industry and benefits Colombian imports to that country (Ecuador's currency is the US dollar). Yet, there can be little doubt that Correa's government imposed those restrictions due to political reasons. Since the beginning of this year, the Colombian peso has appreciated about 10% against the dollar, significantly less than the Brazilian Real, for instance (which appreciated from Rs.2.39 per 1 dollar at the beginning of 2009 to Rs.1.92 per 1 dollar today) -however, the Ecuadorean government has issued no trade restrictions on Brazilian products. You better find another excuse for your protectionism Mr. Correa.

So now, AP's video has put Correa in a difficult position. This time, it is not about the Colombian government saying that some terrorist's computer had a document where they talked about FARC money (drug money, that is) given to his campaign. This time, it is about a top FARC member talking about this on screen. The video is a big embarrassment for President Correa, who has always denied that his campaign received help from FARC or who always doubted the veracity of the documents confiscated by the Colombian government.

Reacting to the video, the Ecuadorean President said it was a lie. He even invited President Uribe to have a lie-detector test performed on both of them, "in order to see who has links with FARC, the paramilitary groups and drug lords".

In any case, the video is a big blow to Mr. Correa's credibility and a boost for Mr. Uribe's. The AP did not want to reveal its source, but it would not surprise me if this were the Colombian government's revenge against the Ecuadorean president for the Santos affair and the trade restrictions. Now, some opposition parties in Ecuador are threatening to sue Mr. Correa before Ecuadorean and international courts. This whole thing seems to fit the Colombian government all too well to think that they had nothing to do with it. Maybe?

But in any case, let me add this: In your face, Mr. Correa. We are all tired of that annoying arrogance of yours, and this will give you pause for thought. I am of the opinion that you should be investigated by the international community, for if you received money from FARC, you are a criminal. If you won the presidency of your country using FARC money, your victory is tainted with the blood and the suffering of hundreds of Colombians. I am no fan of the International Penal Court, but in this case it will come handy.

But let us not be that naïve -you are as likely to end up in jail as Mr. Santos. No one will touch you, at least while you are President. Yet, I am just glad that the Associated Press has made your life more complicated. You totally deserve it.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

A Wise Latina: Sotomayor before the Judiciary Committee

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Go Tigers!

As a Latin American and her fellow Princetonian, I was proud to see Supreme Court nominee, Sonia Sotomayor, before the Judiciary Committee of the US Senate. She was sitting there, with a broken ankle, in front of the Committee members, answering all sorts of questions about her past rulings and the controversial comments she had made throughout her tenure as a judge. In these two days of hearings, she proved to be an articulate, lucid, and knowledgeable woman who is very proud of her Puerto Rican roots but conscious that in her role she has to serve all Americans equally. Both her legal and her life experiences will bring an added value to the most powerful independent court on the planet.

The first Latina to be nominated to the US Supreme Court, Judge Sotomayor carries with her a great deal of wisdom and knowledge of the law. In the hearings this week, she emphasized that a judge's job is not to make law, but to apply it. In her rulings, Judge Sotomayor said, she had always been "impartial" using a philosophy of "fidelity to the law". One of her most well known decisions as a federal districts judge ended a long baseball strike in 1995, allowing the new season of the game to begin one day after she issued her injunction. In another notable case as a court of appeals judge, Judge Sotomayor argued that the New York Police Department could not fire an employee who had been sending racist letters through the mail, for terminating his contract would be a violation of the First Amendment. As the other two judges in the panel disagreed with her, the ruling was contrary to Judge's Sotomayor's opinion.

It is that same issue, race, that had her answering most of the tough questions before the Committee. It has been all over the news: Judge Sotomayor once said that a "wise latina" would more often than not reach better conclusions than a white man who had not lived that life. Also, on another ruling as a court of appeals judge, she maintained that the City of New Haven had the right to have its firefighters sit a new test for job promotions after no black firefighters scored enough points to be promoted under a first test. Recently, however, the Supreme Court overthrew her decision, albeit by a vote of 5-4. Yet, many Republicans are insinuating that she is a racist.

Her "wise latina" sentence and the fact that President Obama said that he had nominated Judge Sotomayor because he wanted someone with "empathy" on the Supreme Court, caused concern that she is biased in her rulings. For many, empathy or particular life experiences have no space in the law, which needs to be unprejudiced and free of all emotional attachment. As Senator Jeff Sessions. the most prominent Republican in the Committee said, lawyers would be worried if a judge is unwilling to consider all of the evidence presented to her and selective in the treatment she gives to particular groups of people.

Nonetheless, after listening to Judge Sotomayor yesterday and today I strongly believe that she was able to explain her words and her past decisions, putting them in context and underlining the following: "I do not believe that any racial, ethnic or gender group has an advantage in sound judging... every person has an equal opportunity to be a good and wise judge, regardless of their background or life experiences". The "wise latina" comment, she said, was "bad" because it left a wrong impression. When she said those words, she was trying to be "inspirational" to a group of Latino students, but the sentence just "fell flat".

When she referred to her decision on the New Haven test for firefighters, and when asked about Roe v. Wade (the Supreme Court ruling that made abortion legal in the US), Judge Sotomayor used one word several times: "precedent". There was substantial legal precedent, she argued, for her decision to allow the City of New Haven to have the new test -there was evidence that suggested that the first test had had a "disparate impact" on minority firefighters. On Roe v. Wade, formerly the issue by which all nominees lived or die, she maintained that "all precedents of the Supreme Court I consider settled law". She added that the Supreme Court had found a right of privacy (the cornerstone which gives women the right to abort according to the Court's jurisprudence) in "various places in the Constitution". In short, she defended her viewpoints and past rulings with clarity and elegance.

Finally, let me say that Judge Sotomayor's confirmation makes me think of another equally respectable fellow Princetonian and his confirmation to the Supreme Court in 2005: Justice Samuel Alito did not have a confirmation process free of controversy and disguised accusations. Back then, the ACLU, a liberal pressure group, maintained that (then) Judge Alito was a danger for the civil liberties of Americans. John Kerry tried and failed to filibuster his confirmation by the Senate. Many pro-choice groups were afraid that he would seek to restrict abortion rights. During his confirmation hearings, his family had to hear comments and questions that were, for lack of a better expression, in poor taste. Yet, Judge Alito was confirmed by the Judiciary Committee (in a vote that was along party lines) and then by the Senate, where only four Democrats voted for his nomination.

A similar thing is bound to happen now with Judge (soon-to-be Justice) Sotomayor. Now more witnesses will come and talk about her before the Committee, but regardless of what they say the outcome is almost certain. The Democrats control both the Committee and the overall Senate. Expect the vote to follow party lines this time, too. But after all, Supreme Court politics have always been about liberals and conservatives and keeping a balance between them. With four conservative justices (Scalia, Roberts, Alito and Thomas), three liberals (Ginsburg, Breyer and Stevens), and a swing-vote (Kennedy), the Court ought to have another liberal to replace Justice Souter.

Judge Sotomayor is the liberal the court needs, and she is more than fit for the task -plus hers would be a historic nomination. With the son of a Kenyan immigrant in the White House and a Boricua woman who grew up in the Bronx on the Supreme Court, America would continue to show it still is a beacon of opportunity and equality among the great nations of the Earth.

Dear Surferchika: More on the Honduran crisis

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An autocrat and a bad copy

A few days ago I received a comment from a reader who was asking more about the Honduran crisis. After I wrote my response, it was so long that I thought it would be better to make it an entry of its own. Here it is:

surferchika on July 13, 2009 2:14 AM said...

What do you predict happening in the long-run to the Honduran people if Zelaya is not restored his position as President? Just curious since I have family members and friends living there. :/ So why do you think they used undemocratic ways to rid of Zelaya and defend democracy? You say they made a big miscalculation but I feel like it was their only choice to prevent being in the hands of a Chavez-like president which would have sucked a ton. I'm not very familiar with politics so excuse my naiveness.


Dear Surferchika,

Thanks for your comment! It is difficult to say whether the people who deposed Manuel Zelaya had other options available to them in order to stop him from having his 'opinion poll' that Sunday. What would have happened if Zelaya had not been sent to Costa Rica that day? Would he have been able to call a Constitutional Assembly to write a new constitution that would have given him a second term in power? These are big unknowns, but I doubt that Mr. Zelaya would have been able to pull off such a comprehensive political change in the face of opposition from the military, Parliament and the courts. I think that at some point he would have had to back off a little and accept that he had to bargain with the rest of them.

Also, as far as I know, the Honduran constitution has no provision for the impeachment of the President, which leaves unanswered the question of when and how can other state officials remove him from power. In any case, I don't think that storming into the presidential house and sending Mr. Zelaya out of the country by force is an acceptable way of ending the mandate of a democratically elected president.

Third, about Mr. Chavez. I understand that many people, including myself, are afraid of him and his tactics. I understand that many people, including myself, dislike Mr. Zelaya's closeness to President Chavez. But Manuel Zelaya is not Hugo Chavez, and even if he wanted to be like him, he would not be able to. Honduras is not swimming in oil, the Honduran opposition is much stronger than that of Venezuela, and the military was suspicious of Mr Zelaya. There is no way in which Zelaya could have become like President Chavez, thanks be to God. Also, remember that, as president, Manuel Zelaya was in good terms with center-right presidents in the region (Calderon and Uribe) and that he was eager to get President Obama's sympathy. Now, however, by deposing him, the Honduran opposition has pushed Zelaya much closer to Hugo Chavez: the former president is now directly under Mr. Chavez's influence and protection.

Finally, about what I think will happen in the long-run. I don't think Mr. Zelaya will be able to return to Honduras. The negotiations taking place in Costa Rica seem to be going nowhere. The new government's grip on power is strong and new elections will take place later this year. After a new president is elected, Mr. Zelaya can kiss goodbye his ambitions to return to power or to stay in for another term. The Honduran people will have to bear the burden of diplomatic and economic isolation in the meantime. That will mean slower economic growth, less foreign aid, difficulty to travel to some countries, scarcity of some products, and ostracism in both regional and international organizations. The small outbreaks of violence inside the country, however, are being controlled by the new government with curfews and a stronger presence of the military -that should keep the situation in an environment of tense calm for now.

Yet, I need to comment on OAS' eagerness to kick out Honduras from the organization after the military deposed Mr. Zelaya. In contrast, OAS was more than willing to open its arms to the thugs that have ruled over Cuba for the past 50 years. In the debate that lifted the ban on Cuba's membership, I remember President Zelaya saying that there are many forms of democracy, implying that Cuba's dictatorship had some democratic legitimacy. Of course, when he was the one removed from power and replaced by an unelected government that was a dictatorship alright. Politicians and diplomats are never ashamed of having double standards.

It will be the job of the next government, the one that comes after the future elections, to restore Honduras' standing in Latin America and the wider world. They will also have the difficult job of reconciling a polarized society and healing the wounds. Perhaps letting Mr. Zelaya return to the country would be a good gesture.

Take care,
Gusilcan
 

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