Every September, Heads of State gather in the aging United Nations headquarters in New York and blame each other for the problems of the world. Yesterday, George W. Bush "chided" Russia for its invasion of Georgia, while Ban Ki Moon, the Secretary-General, warned countries against the "uncritical faith in the 'magic' of the markets", which supposedly is bringing doom to mankind. Never mind.
But today I want to write about another issue, which sooner or later will come up in this session of the UN General Assembly. I am referring to the reform of the UN Security Council. And I am here to tell you why it is a bad idea.
Nowadays, afirming that the Security Council is in bad need of change has become cliché. Everyone seems to agree (I don't) about the unfairness of the fact that only five countries (Russia, China, France, Great Britain and the United States, of course) have both permanent representation and veto power in the most powerful UN institution. Moreover, so the argument goes, the world order today is not the same as that of 1945, the year when the UN was founded. Hence, the Security Council needs to adapt to the new state of the world -it needs to have the permanent representation from more people and more governments, which ideally, should be given veto power as well. We cannot let five great powers manage the world as they like, after all! Democratize the council! Bring in the Brazilians, the Japanese, the Germans, the South Africans, the Indians! Bring anyone in! -Reform! Reform! Reform!
Of course, our friends who believe in Security Council reform put their arguments forward in a more serious and sophisticated way -but the above summarizes the spirit of their ideas. Nevertheless, we often overlook the very obvious arguments that show why reforming the Security Council would be a useless and probably counterproductive endeavor. Let me elaborate.
First, we need to dispel the notion that the Security Council (UNSC) is a democratic institution ruled by the same abstract values and principles as national parliaments. No. The Security Council's main objective is to preserve international peace and security -above all, UNSC delegates talk (directly of indirectly) about war. Thus, the purpose of the UNSC is not to ensure that as many states as possible can have a voice in world affairs. In that sense, it is not a representative institution -and it should not be one: peace and security crises need to be dealt with quickly, before they escalate and grow in complexity and scope. For this purpose, the UNSC needs to remain small, so that debates do not drag on for hours and resolutions can be voted expeditiously. The larger UNSC proposed by reformers would, by default, not be able to react to crises as fast as it should. This is why it is extremely important to keep the restricted membership to the Security Council.
But then, the UNSC has already been reformed once. In 1965, the number of members was raised from 11 to the current 15. Nine of these (the non permanent members, which do not have veto powers) are elected every two years by the General Assembly, respecting a regional framework. So, after all, there has been some in the UNSC since it was founded.
However, it is important to talk about the second reason why reforming the UNSC is simply a bad idea. Let's look at the facts: Germany, Brazil, Japan and India (the so-called Group of Four) are pushing for their inclusion in the UNSC as permanent members, preferrably with veto power. Other proposals support the inclusion of another permanent seat for one African and one Arab country. Koffi Annan, former Secretary-General, supported an elargement of the UNSC along these lines, and augmenting the number of members from 15 to 24. Although such a reform would certainly make the UNSC more representative and "fairer", if you like, it would achieve little in making our world a safer place, which is the council's main aim, after all. Why? First, it is not obvious how the inclusion of Brazil would help boost security: South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Turkey spend more on their militaries than does Brazil -maybe those other two countries should be included first in the UNSC... Moreover, the last time the Brazilian military fought in an international conflict was in WWII. Even the Colombian Army, which fought in the Korean War, has more recent experience on the international stage. The same could be said about an African representative. South Africa, the most appealing candidate for UNSC permanent membership, has an army with 55,000 active personnel. It is ranked 67(!) in the list of world armies by number of troops -both Ecuador and Nepal, to give a couple of examples, have more men serving in their militaries. It is not like the size of militaries is all that matters for UNSC permanent membership, but important questions arise about the impact that whatever South Africa does or says would have on security affairs, given its manpower.
Second, a nuclear India, who's also the world's largest democracy, could claim that it well deserves a permanent seat in the UNSC. After all, both it's economy and it's military power are massive and growing. But then, there is Pakistan, its politically unstable (and also nuclear) rival. If India receives a permanent seat and veto power in the council, it could effectively block all resolutions calling for an end of hostilities or sanctions, should a conflict arise with Pakistan. Permanent UNSC members, even without a veto, would see their power grow enormously at the United Nations -and the Pakistanis would not want to see India in that position, something that would bring more tension to the Kashmir dispute.
Third, there is Germany and Japan. These countries have the second and third world's largest economies, respectively. Arguably, Germany and Japan have more economic relevance than the other UNSC permanent members (even China) bar the United States. But does this make them fit to be permanently included in the council? Well, here the answer is a bit tricky -and some would say just lame: the United Nations was created in the aftermath of World War II, with the aim to avoid a third confrontation between the great powers. The five main victors of the war went on to become the permanent members of the UNSC, while the defeated powers lived a very different story: Germany was divided in East and West and Japan's constitution was drafted entirely by the Americans. As the defeated powers during World War II, Germany and Japan do not fit as permanent members of the Security Council -it is true, nowadays both are liberal states that have embraced democracy and respect for human rights, yet history is too strong to be forgotten. China, who still ressents the Japanese invasion of its territory in WWII, will always vote against the permanent inclusion of Japan in the UNSC. In addition, if Germany joins the council, the European Union would have an overwhelming advantage over the rest: three great European powers would then have permanent membership and, perhaps, veto power over UNSC resolutions. That is probably more than what the Americans or the Russians are willing to stomach.
Now, let us consider other important points in this matter. The right to veto is perhaps one of the most loathed elements of the UN Security Council. In effect, the veto power does not only ensure that the Council's decisions are always the result of consensus by the big five, but more worryingly, it renders the Council absolutely useless when crises and confrontations between great powers arise. Whenever there is a problem involving one of the big five, the Council becomes paralized or is simply ignored (the Cuban Missile Crisis, the War in Iraq, Russia's invasion of Georgia, etc.). If more countries are given the right to veto (a highly unlikely scenario, for those who already have it don't want to share it) the probability of having deadlock at the UNSC would increase heavily.
I also want to dispel another notion: that somehow, if we bring big regional players into the Council (Brazil for Latin America, Egypt for the Arabs, South Africa for the Africans, etc.), the UNSC would be more representative and more connected with all the regions of the globe. Well, no. If Egypt, for instance, gets a permanent seat in the UNSC, supposedly in representation of the Arab League, the other Arab countries would be foolish if they believe that, all of a sudden, the government of Mubarak would bring all their concerns and opinions to the Council. If Egypt gets a UNSC seat, it would defend its interests first and foremost -not those of the heterogenous and complex Arab world. The same happens with Brazil, for instance: the other countries in Latin America know very well that they would gain little by having Brazilian permanent representation in the UNSC, while, in contrast, such a move would dramatically increase Brazil's leverage and power in the region. This is why the Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Pakistan, South Korea and other countries have come together (calling themselves 'Uniting for Consensus') in order to oppose UNSC reforms that would give permanent seats to "regional representatives". Plus, it is standard procedure in the UN that whenever the direct interests of a country are directly affected, and it does not have a seat in the Council, it is summoned to the debate in order to express its point of view. In short, it is hard how having the South Africans or the Brazilians in would be good for the Angolans, or the Costa Ricans.
Finally, it could also be argued that the conformation of the UNSC ressembles more the 2008 world order than the 1945 world order. After all, back in 1945 the Republic of China was a weak, chaotic country going through a horrendous civil war -only four years later its Nationalist government had to run to Taiwan when the Communists took over. Unlike today, China was no great power back then. Similar things could be said about war-torn France, which had been invaded by the Nazis, and Great Britain, which had to lose its massive empire in order to survive the war. Back in 1945, the USA, by far the most powerful country on the planet, shared same voting rights with these three weaker countries, and with the USSR. Today, however, there is a very different story: the Chinese, the French and the British are all big military, nuclear, and economic powers. So, think twice when you use the world order argument in order to support UNSC reform.
The Security Council is not perfect, nor will it ever be. It has many structural problems and it often is slow or unwilling to act amid true crises. Its voting and membership systems are highly biased in favor of the big five, and the other 187 members of the UN can do little about it. Nevertheless, as I have attempted to show, a far-reaching reform of the Security Council could do more harm than good, and would make little sense in reality -since when did Egypt, Brazil or South Africa become more powerful than any of the big five countries? The UNSC reformers will face much criticism to their proposals, and this is just my small contribution. As the saying goes, if it ain't broken...